Partly cloudy skies this evening will become overcast overnight. Low 39F. Winds light and variable..
Partly cloudy skies this evening will become overcast overnight. Low 39F. Winds light and variable.
All-American Drew Timme paced the Bulldogs in scoring, field goals and free-throws made this season.
All-American Drew Timme paced the Bulldogs in scoring, field goals and free-throws made this season.
With March Madness underway, the Zags are the No. 1 overall seed for the second year in a row. Although the country at large is not as bullish on the Zags’ chances to claim their first National Championship, they are still the odds-on favorite in Vegas to take home the tourney crown.
The Zags are a well-oiled machine, both offensively and defensively. According to KenPom, GU boasts the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency and the No. 7 adjusted defensive efficiency. Although these numbers are slightly down compared to last year, the Zags pass both the eye test and the statistical test.
So what holes does this team have? The following is not a comprehensive list, nor is it an indictment of the players Mark Few has assembled. It is simply an analysis of the Zags’ weaknesses that could hinder them from capturing an elusive national title.
Drew Timme isn’t the Zags most important player this year despite being a second team AP All-American. Timme is, however, the face of the Gonzaga program. In his three seasons in Spokane, Timme has demonstrated that when he plays well, a Zag victory usually follows.
That also means when he doesn’t play well, the Zags usually lose. The losses are sharp and painful, and they live in the deepest, darkest recesses of a Gonzaga fan’s mind.
Baylor. Saint Mary’s. Duke.
Forgive Timme for having a bad game every now and then against elite competition. It’s not like he went scoreless against a No. 16 seed in an upset.
In the biggest of games on the grandest of stages, teams have proven they can shut down Timme. For as graceful and skilled a player as he is on the low block, his lack of outside shooting limits him. Athletic teams will swarm him with double teams and speed up the game, hoping to force him into a bad decision.
Take these plays that came in an early season loss against then No. 5 Duke.
Timme catches the ball at the top of the key with space to move. Although not his preferred scoring method, he’s proven that he can get to the cup from this spot. Once Timme puts his back to the basket, he puts his head down and Duke sends a double team. Before he can see it, he’s already spinning towards the basket and into the teeth of Duke’s defense. Instead of “sensing” the double team and being patient, he rushes a bad shot.
In this sequence, Timme gets the ball in the same spot and instead of posting up, drives straight down the lane, meeting Duke’s Mark Williams. Williams has a 7’3 wingspan and finished this game with 17 points, nine rebounds and six blocks. Timme is forced to pick up his dribble mid-air by Williams and makes an errant passing read that ends up in William’s hands. Again, Timme is sped up by Duke and fails to use patience as he executes his move.
As the game wore on, Timme did make smarter reads. Duke has an incredibly talented and athletic team, with four projected first round NBA draft picks. They use their athleticism on defense to pressure the ball at all times, forcing offenses to start their action farther away from the basket. They also pester ball screens and dribble handoffs. A smart team like Gonzaga can use Duke’s aggressiveness against them. When Duke over pursues, a back cut or a cut away from the ball like Rasir Bolton does is all it takes to get a quality shot. Timme recognizes this and hits Bolton in the numbers for a wide open three.
This sequence is more of the same, as Nembhard fakes a ball screen to the corner for Bolton before bolting backdoor. Timme hits him with an immaculate pass for an easy lay-in. Against teams with superior athletes like Duke or Baylor last season, taking advantage of over aggressive defense is crucial. The mere threat of Timme’s scoring prowess is often enough to keep a defense on edge. If a defense sells out to stop the ‘stache, the GU offense can still be high octane if he’s patient.
To start the game against Duke, Timme guarded Mark Williams and Holmgren lined up on Banchero. On one of the first plays of the game, Banchero tries to blow by Holmgren and is blocked at the rim.
Later in the half, Banchero would drive to his right and finish an and-one through Holmgren. Holmgren was called for a foul because his right arm was wrapped around Banchero’s back, otherwise the lengthy Minnesotan was in good position.
The bigger problem for GU is Timme.
Timme was ruthlessly hunted in pick and rolls and forced to defend in space by Baylor in last year’s national championship. The result was not pretty. Although Timme is a solid defender on the interior, teams will hunt for mismatches on the outside with him in postseason play.
Banchero gets Holmgren off him with a screen and all it takes is two dribbles for him to rise up over Timme for the jumper. Banchero is a nightmare to guard for nearly everyone in the country, so cut Timme some slack.There is no one on Gonzaga’s roster that can consistently check Banchero, but with a mixture of Anton Watson, Chet Holmgren and other defenders that are switched onto him, he can be contained. For all of his talents, Banchero is not a playmaker that elevates the play of his teammates.
However, if the Zags are going to make a deep postseason run, their defense will have to be more formidable.
Take this sequence. Timme and Nembhard get caught watching the ball instead of staying attached to their man and Rasir Bolton notices the lack of backside help too late. The result is an easy, ferocious two-handed finish from Williams. The good news? Plays like this are easily fixable. It is simply a matter of focus and attention to detail.
Although this breakdown is centered around Duke, similar teams not called Blue Devils will present the same set of problems for the Bulldogs. Kansas, Baylor and Kentucky, among others, are athletic enough to give Mark Few and his staff nightmares. The test for the Bulldogs from last year largely remains the same, albeit with a few tweaks.
Drew Timme must be a serviceable defender on the perimeter. He also must impact the game if the other team takes away his scoring. In the WCC Championship game against St. Mary’s, the Zags proved that Timme’s scoring isn’t a prerequisite for a W.
New to this year’s test are questions of foul trouble and the backcourt. Although Bolton and Nembhard do not operate on the same athletic plane as Jalen Suggs, they impact GU positively on offense in their own ways. Bolton does it from the three-point line, and Nembhard is a three-level scorer and adept passer. The real question is how they will hold up against a more athletic backcourt.
USF’s Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz scored 25 points and 15 points, respectively, against GU in their first matchup this season. The Zags clamped down in the subsequent matchups, particularly in the WCC quarterfinals as GU held Bouyea to five points while Shabazz poured in 27. Unfortunately, there are better backcourts in the nation outside of the WCC. In Gonzaga’s West region, Duke and Alabama would both present problems for GU on the perimeter.
This is not to say the Zags aren’t a supremely talented team with one of the best coaches in modern college basketball. They are the No. 1 overall seed for the second year in a row for a reason. This is an exercise in picking nits, and when it comes to a program that has made the last six Sweet 16s, the nits are few and far between.
“This thing we start tomorrow is just a three-week crapshoot and you’ve got to be really good, but you’ve got to be lucky, too,” Few said before a first round matchup against Georgia State.
Tommy Conmy is a copy editor. Follow him on Twitter: @tommyconmy.
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